Pingdemic hits 6.2 million people since May

The Adam Smith Institute estimates 6.2 million people have been asked to isolate by app or contacted by Test and Trace since the start of May. 

• The number of people asked to self-isolate in the last week is 1.7 million (14-21 July) across the entire United Kingdom, up from 1.2 million in the previous week (7-14 July).

• 6.2 million people have been contacted by the app or test and trace and asked to isolate since the start of May.

• The ‘Pingdemic’ has resulted in about a 15% reduction in people using the app between 7 and 14 July. No doubt many fewer again today. This means about 105k fewer notifications then there would have otherwise been between 7 and 14 May.

• Looking forward, we can project about 2.1 million people to be asked to isolate next week based on current case growth rate.

• Each case is leading to 5.09 people being 'pinged'.

Matthew Lesh, Head of Research at the Adam Smith Institute, said:

“The 'Pingdemic' is causing substantial financial distress and threatening the viability of thousands of businesses. Supermarket shelves are empty, bins not being picked up and factories being shut down. “

“Ten days of self-isolation for people who have been fully vaccinated is totally farcical. There should be reduced requirements so people can get back to work and their lives as quickly as possible.”

Notes to editors:

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line, info@adamsmith.org | 07584778207

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

National insurance hike: a crushing betrayal and attack on younger and poorer

In response reports suggesting the Government will increase national insurance to fund a social care expansion, the ASI’s Head of Government Affairs John Macdonald said:

A national insurance hike would be a crushing betrayal of millions of Tory voters. It is an unfair attack on younger and poorer hard working Brits. Hiking taxes will prolong Covid economic suffering by destroying jobs and crushing businesses — which could ultimately mean less tax revenue for public services. 

Throwing money at social care will do little to solve the fundamental, structural issues. We need more private sector investment and a new model of insurance, not throwing fuel on a dumpster fire. 

The state has grown large enough over the last two years. If anything, a Conservative Government should be trying to abolish national insurance to allow people to keep more of their earnings and speed up the post-Covid recovery. 

Notes to editors:

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact Matt Kilcoyne, matt@adamsmith.org | 07584778207

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

Boris Joins 1.73 Million Isolating In Pingdemic

The Adam Smith Institute estimates 1.73 million people are currently isolating across the UK due after being pinged by app or contacted by Test and Trace as Boris Johnson u-turns on isolating

• 1.73 million people currently isolating after being pinged by Matthew Hancock’s NHS app or contacted by Test and Trace

• 5.8 million people forced to isolate since start of May

• If the Government does not change approach, the weekly isolation figure could increase to 5.2 million people by mid-August

Adam Smith Institute analysis projects 1.73 million people are currently isolating after being pinged by the app or contacted by a test and trace service across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

This comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak have been forced to isolate after Health Secretary Sajid Javid tested positive for Covid-19. This is despite both others being double jabbed, less likely to get the virus and highly unlikely to suffer a serious bout of Covid-19.

ASI analysis has found that 5.8 million people have been forced to isolate since the start of May. The ASI is projecting that as many as 5.2 million people could be forced to isolate by the app and test and trace by mid-August, based on the current case trajectory.

The pingdemic has resulted in thousands of businesses shutting their doors and reducing operations, due to large numbers of staff having to isolate. The lost revenue just as the Treasury is taking away Covid-19 support programs risks the closure of many businesses and the needless transformation of a viral risk from Covid-19 into a credit risk across the economy. 

Office for National Statistics figures suggest one quarter of isolators face financial hardship. This means fully vaccinated individuals are being forced to decide between a real risk of lost livelihood and a much lower risk of having or passing along the virus. 

The ASI is calling on the Government to take a risk-based approach to isolation, including reduced requirements for fully vaccinated individuals and those who have not had substantial exposure to an infected individual. 

Matthew Kilcoyne, Deputy Director at the Adam Smith Institute, says: 

“Boris Johnson is just one of millions who are being forced to isolate, despite being double vaccinated. The Prime Minister will carry on working and getting paid, but millions don’t have the luxury of working from home or having flexible shifts. 

“NHS app and test and trace induced isolation is causing substantial financial distress and threatening the viability of thousands of businesses, as large numbers of staff are forced to isolate. Freedom Day will mean quite the opposite for 1.7m currently locked away and the millions more over the coming weeks who will be told to isolate despite posing little risk to others.”

Note to editors:

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact Matt Kilcoyne: matt@adamsmith.org | 07584778207.

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

The ASI estimates that each case leads to 5.76 individuals isolating based on data from previous weeks across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This includes 3.05 from the app and 2.34 contacted directly by test and trace services.

Salt & sugar taxes could cost shoppers up to £4.8 billion each year

Henry Dimbleby's National Food Strategy has proposed sugar and salt taxes on everyday staples that may see every household forking out an extra £172 per year to the taxman. 

Dimbleby predicts the tax would cost households between £2.9 and £3.4 billion per year, but think tank estimates put this far higher. A comprehensive tax on salt and sugar consumed could mean a £4.8 billion tax bill.

The recommendation of a £3/kg tax on sugar and a £6/kg tax on salt in processed foods is expected to increase prices on everyday essentials. Foods affected by the tax could include store cupboard staples such as jam, ketchup and cereals, which could increase in price by almost a half. The tax could also see the price of chocolate bars increase by almost a quarter, multipacks of sweets by almost a third, and crumpets by almost a quarter. 

The tax could be felt in restaurants and takeaways, increasing the cost of a dozen Krispy Kreme doughnuts by around 50p and a Domino’s pizza by more than 30p. This could be particularly difficult to tax in small restaurants, where quantifying the amount of salt and sugar used in every dish is burdensome.

Despite backing away from a potential additional tax on meat, the report demands a reduction in meat consumption, with the salt and sugar tax hitting products like bacon, corned beef and sausage rolls.

The TaxPayers’ Alliance, Adam Smith Institute, and Institute of Economic Affairs argue the proposals would target consumers, food manufacturers and the already struggling hospitality industry. It would be deeply regressive and see food items become either tasteless or reduced in portion sizes. 

Examples of food impacted by the tax:

• Breakfast staples like strawberry jam and frosted cornflakes could become around 46 and 33 per cent more expensive (£1.25 to £1.82 and £3.50 to £4.66) respectively.

• Storecupboard sauces like ketchup and soy sauce could become around 23 and 43 per cent more expensive (£1.99 to £2.44 and £0.60 to £0.86) respectively.

• Treats like Skittles and Twix bars could become around 32 and 25 per cent more expensive (£1.50 to £1.99 and £1.25 to £1.56) respectively.

• Snacks like brownies and chocolate digestives could become around 21 and 18 per cent more expensive (£1.65 to £1.99 and £1.35 to £1.59) respectively.

• Lunchtime choices like crumpets and jarred sandwich spread could become around 24 and 14 per cent more expensive (£0.25 to £0.31 and £1.70 to £1.93) respectively.

• Family dinners like pizzas and pasta sauce could become around 15 and 6 per cent more expensive (£3.50 to £4.02 and £1.75 to £1.86) respectively.

• Takeaways like Krispy Kreme doughnuts and Domino’s could become around 3 and 1.5 per cent more expensive (£15.75 to £16.22 and £20.99 to £21.32) respectively.

John O’Connell, Chief Executive of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said: 

"This is yet another case of middle-class meddling that will hit the poorest families hardest, as this madcap scheme will hike up costs of everyday essentials. 

“Not only do the high priests of the nanny state think that ordinary folk can't look after themselves, they also can't resist dipping their hands into taxpayers' pockets. 

“The government must reject outright any tax hikes and instead trust British families to make their own choices."

Dr Eamonn Butler, Director of the neoliberal think tank the Adam Smith Institute, says:

“We thought the nanny state had died during the pandemic, but the blob marches on thanks to a man whose privilege blinds him to the blight his proposed policies would inflict on a nation that does not want his prescription.

“Boris needs to stand up for the consumer interest and say that there is no benefit for ordinary families from increasing the cost of food while ruining its taste. 

“Henry Dimbleby should have looked at how his own firm could bring down the cost of good quality food to the reach of ordinary Britons before he decided to play with everyone else's food.”

Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics at free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs said:

“Once again, rich people want to clobber ordinary people with stealth taxes, this time on sugar and salt. By Mr Dimbleby’s own admission, this cash grab will cost consumers £3 billion, but independent analysis suggests it will cost even more.

At a time of rising inflation, after the deepest recession in 300 years, Mr Dimbleby really needs to read the room. He rightly says that a meat tax would be unpopular and regressive. If Boris Johnson is foolish enough to act on these recommendations, he will soon find the same is true of taxing basic nutrients.”